Dear reader, parliament returns tomorrow, 1 October, from its summer recess, and before the new legislative year swallows us whole, I thought it worth pausing to look back.
Over the past twelve months your correspondent has sent you 139 bulletins and something like 984 stories from the Turkish press. Read one at a time, they can feel like a blur of detentions, court rulings, cabinet meetings and budget talks. Read together, they tell a story. What follows is that story, set out as an almanac: the year month by month, the threads that ran through it, and — with all the caution such things deserve — the scenarios that look possible from here.
🗓️ The year, month by month
September 2025
A court annulled the CHP’s Istanbul congress and Gürsel Tekin was installed as trustee, then expelled from the party.
Özgür Özel was re-elected CHP leader at an extraordinary congress with 835 of 917 votes.
Operations began against Ankara’s concert spending and against municipalities in İzmir and Bayrampaşa.
October 2025
Parliament opened with Bahçeli branding the CHP “culprit”, and a delegation was cleared to hear Öcalan on İmralı.
Türkiye signed the Gaza declaration of intent alongside the US, Egypt and Qatar; Turkish MPs on the Freedom Flotilla were detained by Israel.
November – December 2025
The 2026 budget talks, covered here in special editions — including the finding that not a single opposition bill reached a committee agenda in the 28th term.
January – February 2026
Pensions became the CHP’s main campaign; whispers of a “post-Erdoğan era” circulated inside the AKP.
The peace-process commission neared its report, the early-election debate began, and ENAG put annual inflation at 54%.
March – April 2026
US and Israeli strikes on Iran brought war to the region and steep rises at the petrol pump.
The İBB trial opened on 9 March. Erdoğan ruled out by-elections; mayors’ defections to the AKP gathered pace.
School shootings in Siverek and Kahramanmaraş shook the country.
May – June 2026
On 22 May came the “absolute nullity” ruling, restoring Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership of the CHP.
Bahçeli proposed a “coordinator” status for Öcalan; Ankara prepared for the NATO summit with house raids and protest bans.
July – August 2026
The NATO summit was held in Ankara, and Özel launched the YENİ Party.
The framework law passed with 467 votes; Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact; prosecutors moved to lift Özel’s immunity.
🧵 Five threads that ran all year
1. The main opposition reshaped through the courts. From the Istanbul trustee in September to the nullity ruling in May and the YENİ Party in July, this was the year’s most-covered story. The opposition now stands in two parts.
2. Municipalities under pressure. “Mayor” appears in 50 of our headlines and “detained” in 44 — alongside a steady flow of mayors switching to the AKP.
3. The peace process. From the parliamentary commission to the “right to hope” debate and, finally, a framework law carried by 467 votes. Öcalan’s status and Demirtaş’s release remain open.
4. The election calendar. November 2027, spring 2028, even 16 April 2028 have all been floated. Under the constitution, Erdoğan can stand again only if parliament brings the vote forward — which requires 360 votes.
5. War next door, strain at home. Gaza, Iran and NATO gave Ankara a stage abroad, while households carried inflation, bad loans and the long wait for pension rises.
“The caravan is put in order on the road.” — the Turkish proverb this blog has lived by, and a fair description of Turkish politics this year.
🔭 Six scenarios for the months ahead
These are not predictions. They are Claude’s reading of where the trends in these bulletins point, from most to least likely.
A. Legal pressure and a divided opposition continue · High
The nullity ruling stands, the CHP and the YENİ Party fight over voters and mayors, and Özel’s immunity reaches parliament.B. The framework law is applied and the peace process advances · Medium
Disarmament is verified; Demirtaş may be released in the autumn.C. An early election called by parliament in 2027 · Medium
May or November 2027, allowing Erdoğan to stand again.D. A push for a new constitution · Medium–Low
Built on the peace process, possibly heading to a referendum.E. The regional war flares again · Low–Medium
A collapse of the US–Iran ceasefire would push fuel and inflation back up.F. The opposition reunites behind one candidate · Low
İmamoğlu’s willingness to back another name keeps this door ajar.
📌 Dates to watch
1 October 2026 — parliament returns: the Özel immunity file and the framework law’s implementing rules.
Autumn 2026 — Demirtaş’s possible release.
January 2027 — minimum wage and pension rises, the clearest sign of early-election thinking.
May / November 2027 — the early-election dates discussed in AKP circles.
My heartfelt thanks, as ever, to you for reading, and to the Turkish journalists whose work makes these bulletins possible. The new legislative year begins tomorrow, and the bulletins resume with it.
A note on how this was made: the almanac was compiled with the help of Claude, which read all 139 posts published on this blog between 2 September 2025 and 2 September 2026 and summarised them for me. The six scenarios are Claude’s reading of the trends in these bulletins, which I share here as food for thought rather than as my own forecast.